Tools/
Breakeven Sensitivity Matrix
Where does a customer start paying for themselves?
Contribution margin per customer is a basic measure of DTC unit economics: the revenue that survives COGS and CAC. This version stops there. It leaves out shipping, payment processing, returns, and overhead, so treat it as the ceiling on contribution, not the final figure.
It’s a structural test, not a forecast. Enter your assumptions and the model plots contribution across every nearby combination of CAC and revenue, making the boundary between profitable and underwater explicit, and showing how much margin of error those assumptions leave you.
COGS 50% · synced to margin
First-order AOV: the revenue from a customer’s first purchase only.
How to read this: each cell is the contribution dollars you keep per customer at that mix of CAC (across) and first-order aov (down). Teal is profitable, orange is underwater, and the deep-purple line traces break-even, the edge where contribution crosses zero. Your current inputs sit at the ringed cell. Hover a cell for its contribution margin %.
| CAC | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $30 | $35 | $40 | $45 | $50 | $55 | $60 | $65 | $70 | |
| $60 | $0 | -$5 | -$10 | -$15 | -$20 | -$25 | -$30 | -$35 | -$40 |
| $70 | $5 | $0 | -$5 | -$10 | -$15 | -$20 | -$25 | -$30 | -$35 |
| $80 | $10 | $5 | $0 | -$5 | -$10 | -$15 | -$20 | -$25 | -$30 |
| $90 | $15 | $10 | $5 | $0 | -$5 | -$10 | -$15 | -$20 | -$25 |
| $100 | $20 | $15 | $10 | $5 | $0You are here | -$5 | -$10 | -$15 | -$20 |
| $110 | $25 | $20 | $15 | $10 | $5 | $0 | -$5 | -$10 | -$15 |
| $120 | $30 | $25 | $20 | $15 | $10 | $5 | $0 | -$5 | -$10 |
| $130 | $35 | $30 | $25 | $20 | $15 | $10 | $5 | $0 | -$5 |
| $140 | $40 | $35 | $30 | $25 | $20 | $15 | $10 | $5 | $0 |
Net of Everything Newsletter
Get this kind of thinking weekly
A weekly readout for founders and operators scaling pure-play e-commerce.
This tool is provided for general informational and educational purposes only. It is an illustrative, simplified model. It is not financial, accounting, tax, legal, or investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation or a guarantee of any result. Every figure depends solely on the assumptions you enter and on a deliberately narrow definition of contribution margin (gross margin on revenue, less customer acquisition cost); it excludes fulfillment, payment processing, returns, discounts, overhead, taxes, and other real-world costs, and may not reflect your actual economics.
This is beta software, provided “as is” and “as available,” without warranties of any kind, express or implied, including accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a particular purpose. Plura Interactive LLC accepts no liability for any decision made or action taken in reliance on it. Use of this tool does not create a consulting, advisory, or client relationship of any kind. Verify against your own data and consult a qualified professional before acting.
Your use of this tool is also subject to our Terms of Use.